Looking for a place where all the key rental housing data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!
Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | December 12, 2023
Headline: Here’s the inflation breakdown for November 2023 — in one chart (CNBC)
Key Takeaways:
- The index excluding Food & Energy (“Core Inflation”) increased 4% over the last 12 months, the same increase as the 12 months ending in October.
- The All Item CPI increased 3.1% for the 12 months ending in November, after increasing 3.2% in the 12 months ending in October.
- “Shelter has accounted for nearly 70% of the total increase in core CPI over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Housing inflation declined slightly in November, to 6.5% relative to a year earlier, and has fallen from a peak of over 8% in March 2023.” (CNBC)
Small Business Optimism Index
National Federation of Independent Business | Report | December 12, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- The Small Business Optimism Index decreased by 0.1 points in November to 90.6, following a 0.1-point decrease in October.
- The percent of small businesses who raised prices fell 5 points to 25% of all firms, down from over 60% when inflation started.
- The percent of owners reporting unfilled job openings has declined from 51% in 2020 to 40% in November 2023.
Employment Situation Summary
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | December 8, 2023
Headline: U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 in November, unemployment rate falls to 3.7% (CNBC)
Key Takeaways:
- The unemployment rate moved down from 3.9% to 3.7% in November.
- Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November after increasing by 150,000 in October and 297,000 in September.
- Job gains occurred in health care and government, and also saw an uptick in manufacturing reflecting the return of workers from their strike.
- We see a “strong but moderating labor market”, with “healthy job growth, lower unemployment, and decent wage increases. All this points to the labor market reaching a natural equilibrium of around 150,000 jobs [per month] next year, which is plenty to continue the expansion, and not enough to trigger a Fed rate hike.” (Robert Frick, Navy Federal Credit Union)
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan | Press Release | December 22, 2023
Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director:
- Consumer sentiment soared 14% in December, reversing all declines from the previous four months.
- “Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 4.5% last month to 3.1% this month. The current reading is the lowest since March 2021 and sits just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.” (Joanne Hsu)
- All five index components rose this month, which has only occurred in 10% of readings since 1978.
Consumer Spending
Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | December 22, 2023
Headline: US inflation decelerating in boost to economy (Reuters)
Key Takeaways
- Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy:
- +0.1% MoM (October: +0.1% MoM)
- +3.2% YoY (October: +3.4% YoY ) << this is a key metric tracked by the Fed
- The Overall PCE Price Index decreased -0.1% MoM and increased only 2.6% YoY.
- Personal Consumer Expenditures (dollars) ticked up 0.2% MoM in November after increasing 0.1% in October and 0.7% in September.
- “U.S. prices fell in November for the first in more than 3-1/2 years, pushing the annual increase in inflation further below 3%, and boosting financial market expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next March.” (Reuters)
Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data
Single-Family Rent Index
CoreLogic | Press Release | December 19, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- The Single Family Rent Index recorded a 2.5% year-over-year gain in October, the lowest growth rate in more than three years.
- Despite slowing growth, the median renter household now pays about $500 more per month than it did in early 2020.
- San Diego (5.2%), St Louis (5%), and New York and Boston (4.7%) posted the highest annual rent growth, while Austin (-2.1%) and Miami (-1%) saw year-over-year decreases.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | December 26, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- The National Price Index reported a 4.8% annual change in October, after reporting a 4% annual increase in September.
- “U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October.” (Brian Luke, S&P DJI)
- Detroit (8.1%), San Diego (7.2%), and New York (7.1%) led the way with the highest year-over-year increase, and Phoenix and Las Vegas flipped to slight year-over-year gains.
November Rental Report
Realtor.com | Press Release | December 14, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- November marks the seventh month of YoY rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties at -0.6%, after a -0.5% YoY decline in October.
- The median rent in the West was -2.3% lower YoY, driven by big metros such as San Francisco (-2.8%) and Los Angeles (-3.8%).
- Northeastern metros such as New York, NY (5.6%) and Boston, MA (6.1%) drove rent YoY growth for the region.
- Contributions to the difference in these trends could be faster growth of supply in the West (23% higher completions this year vs. 0.7% higher completions for the Northeast), or a more consistent labor market in the Northeast (3.5% unemployment vs. 4.2% unemployment in the West region)
New Residential Construction
HUD | Press Release | December 19, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Starts for single-family homes increased 18% while reaching a level not seen since April 2022.
- Completions for multi-family increased 26% MoM
- Total permits dropped 2.5% MoM, and are down -13.7% YTD compared to 2022.
New Residential Sales
HUD | Press Release | December 22, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- New Home Sales were down -12.2% MoM and 1.3% YoY in November, after declining -5.6% MoM in October.
- The supply of new homes for sale at the end of November increased to 9.2 months according to the current sales rate, an increase of 16% compared to October, after October saw a MoM increase of 13%.
- Overall, total new homes sold are up 5.4% YTD compared with 2022.
Existing Home Sales
NAR | Press Release | December 20, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Existing home sales held essentially unchanged (+0.1%) MoM in November, after declining 4.1% MoM in October.
- The percentage of sales by first-time buyers went up to 31% in November, compared with 28% and 27% in October and September respectively.
- The median existing home sales price was $387,600, down 1% MoM and the 4th consecutive month of decline.
Pending Home Sales Index
NAR | Press Release | December 28, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Pending home sales remained flat in November MoM after decreasing -1.5% MoM in October.
- “Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings.” (Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist)
- The pending home sales index for the West saw the greatest MoM increase at 4.2%, while the Northeast (0.8%) and Midwest (0.5%) also saw increases. The South region saw a 2.3% MoM decrease