Key Rental Housing Data Release Summary for January 2024

Looking for a place where all the key rental housing data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!

Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | January 11, 2024

Headline: Inflation Edged Up in December After Rapid Cooling Most of 2023 (WSJ)

Key Takeaways:

• The index excluding Food & Energy (“Core Inflation”) increased 3.9% over the last 12 months, after increasing 4% over the 12 months ending in November. 
• The All Item CPI increased 3.4% for the 12 months ending in December, after increasing only 3.1% in the 12 months ending in November.
• “Core prices increased 3.9% from a year earlier, a modest slowing from November’s 4% annual increase. Thursday’s report isn’t likely to change the Fed’s near-term policy outlook.” (WSJ)

Small Business Optimism Index

National Federation of Independent Business | Report | January 9, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Small Business Optimism Index increased by 1.3 points in December to 91.9, following a 0.1-point decrease in November.
• Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up 1 point from last month and surpassing labor quality as the top problem. 
• Outlook for 2024: “Consumer spending will be slowed due to excess debt and a slowing job market. And prices will remain elevated, the Consumer Price Index is 20% higher than it was in 2020. Incomes did not rise as much, so real incomes fell. Used car prices are 30% higher, new cars are up 20%, etc. The Fed will start cutting its policy rate, a stimulus for financial markets and mortgage rates but not much help for most consumers.” (NFIB)

Employment Situation Summary

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | January 5, 2024

Headline: Job Gains Picked Up in December, Capping Year of Healthy Hiring (WSJ)

Key Takeaways:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December after increasing by 173,000 in November and 105,000 in October, resulting in three consecutive months of increase
• The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.7% in December.
• Wages rose 4.1% in December 
• “The labor market’s slowing but steady pace during 2023, coupled with a sharp slowdown in inflation, has fueled optimism that the economy can achieve a so-called soft landing.” (WSJ)

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan | Press Release | February 2, 2024

Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director: 

• Consumer sentiment soared 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021, after increasing 14% in December.
• Over the last two months, sentiment has climbed a cumulative 29%, the largest two-month increase since 1991 as a recession ended.
• “Year-ahead inflation expectations softened to 2.9% after plunging in December. The current reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is now within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.” (Joanne Hsu)

Consumer Spending

Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | January 26, 2024

Headline: Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 0.2% in December and was up 2.9% from a year ago (CNBC)

Key Takeaways

• Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy:
  • +0.2% MoM (November: +0.1% MoM)
  • +2.9% YoY (November: +3.2% YoY ) << this is a key metric tracked by the Fed 
• The Overall PCE Price Index increased 0.2% MoM and increased 2.6% YoY.
• The growth rate for the Core PCE Index in the last 12 months at 2.9% is the lowest since March 2021.
• “It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to the 2% target in annualized terms over the second half of the year,” wrote Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics (CNBC)

Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

Single-Family Rent Index

CoreLogic | Press Release | January 16, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• U.S. single-family rent growth increased by 2.7% YoY in November, after increasing 2.5% YoY in October.
• “Rents in Austin, Texas climbed by nearly 30% from early 2020 to mid-2023 but have now posted five consecutive months of annual declines.” (Molly Boesel, CoreLogic)
• San Diego (5.6%), Minneapolis (5.2%), and Boston (5.1%) posted the highest annual rent growth, while Austin (-2.5%) and Miami (-1.1%) posted annual losses.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | January 30, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• The National Price Index reported a 5.1% annual change in November, after reporting a 4.7% annual change in October.
• For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.2% MoM decrease in November.
• Detroit (8.2%) and San Diego (8%) again led the way for YoY increases, while Portland (-0.7%) was the only metro to report a decrease in prices.

December Rental Report

Realtor.com | Press Release | January 25, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• December marks the eighth month of YoY rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties at -0.4%, after a -0.6% decline in November.

• “The median asking rent was $1,713, down by $4 from last month and $63 (-3.5%) less than the peak seen in July 2022. However, it was still $309 (22.0%) higher than the same time in 2019.” (Realtor.com)
• The YoY rent for the South declined -0.5%, led by Orlando (-6.2%), Austin (-5.4%), and Dallas (-4.7%). This decrease is likely due to the 32% increase in the annual multi-family completion rate from January to October 2023.

New Residential Construction

HUD | Press Release | January 18, 2024

Key Takeaways: 

• Permits for buildings with 5+ units were down -20.3% in 2023 vs. 2022, while completions for those buildings were up 23% in that same time period.
• Starts for single-family homes decreased -8% MoM after reaching a 20-month peak in November.
• Completions for buildings with 5+ units have increased for 2 consecutive months, increasing 11% MoM.

New Residential Sales

HUD | Press Release | January 26, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• New Home Sales were up 8% MoM in December after falling -12.2% MoM in November.
• The months’ supply of new homes decreased -6.8% to 8.2 months in December, compared with 8.8 months in November.
• Seasonally adjusted new homes for sale at the end of December reached its highest level in 2023, and increased 0.9% MoM.

Existing Home Sales

NAR | Press Release | January 19, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Existing home sales dipped -1% MoM in December, after holding steady in November.
• The median existing home sales price was $382,600, down -1.3% MoM and the 5th consecutive month of decline.
• According to the Realtors Confidence Index, homes typically remained on the market for 29 days, up 16% MoM and 11% YoY.

Pending Home Sales Index

NAR | Press Release | January 26, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Pending home sales increased 8.3% MoM in December after remaining flat in November.
• The Midwest (5.6%), South (11.1%), and West (14%) all increased MoM, while the Northeast (-3%) was the only region with a decrease.
• “The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.