Looking for a place where all the key rental housing data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!
Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | January 11, 2024
Headline: Inflation Edged Up in December After Rapid Cooling Most of 2023 (WSJ)
Key Takeaways:
- The index excluding Food & Energy (“Core Inflation”) increased 3.9% over the last 12 months, after increasing 4% over the 12 months ending in November.
- The All Item CPI increased 3.4% for the 12 months ending in December, after increasing only 3.1% in the 12 months ending in November.
- “Core prices increased 3.9% from a year earlier, a modest slowing from November’s 4% annual increase. Thursday’s report isn’t likely to change the Fed’s near-term policy outlook.” (WSJ)
Small Business Optimism Index
National Federation of Independent Business | Report | January 9, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- The Small Business Optimism Index increased by 1.3 points in December to 91.9, following a 0.1-point decrease in November.
- Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up 1 point from last month and surpassing labor quality as the top problem.
- Outlook for 2024: “Consumer spending will be slowed due to excess debt and a slowing job market. And prices will remain elevated, the Consumer Price Index is 20% higher than it was in 2020. Incomes did not rise as much, so real incomes fell. Used car prices are 30% higher, new cars are up 20%, etc. The Fed will start cutting its policy rate, a stimulus for financial markets and mortgage rates but not much help for most consumers.” (NFIB)
Employment Situation Summary
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | January 5, 2024
Headline: Job Gains Picked Up in December, Capping Year of Healthy Hiring (WSJ)
Key Takeaways:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December after increasing by 173,000 in November and 105,000 in October, resulting in three consecutive months of increase
- The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.7% in December.
- Wages rose 4.1% in December
- “The labor market’s slowing but steady pace during 2023, coupled with a sharp slowdown in inflation, has fueled optimism that the economy can achieve a so-called soft landing.” (WSJ)
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan | Press Release | February 2, 2024
Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director:
- Consumer sentiment soared 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021, after increasing 14% in December.
- Over the last two months, sentiment has climbed a cumulative 29%, the largest two-month increase since 1991 as a recession ended.
- “Year-ahead inflation expectations softened to 2.9% after plunging in December. The current reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is now within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.” (Joanne Hsu)
Consumer Spending
Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | January 26, 2024
Headline: Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 0.2% in December and was up 2.9% from a year ago (CNBC)
Key Takeaways
- Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy:
- +0.2% MoM (November: +0.1% MoM)
- +2.9% YoY (November: +3.2% YoY ) << this is a key metric tracked by the Fed
- The Overall PCE Price Index increased 0.2% MoM and increased 2.6% YoY.
- The growth rate for the Core PCE Index in the last 12 months at 2.9% is the lowest since March 2021.
- “It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to the 2% target in annualized terms over the second half of the year,” wrote Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics (CNBC)
Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data
Single-Family Rent Index
CoreLogic | Press Release | January 16, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. single-family rent growth increased by 2.7% YoY in November, after increasing 2.5% YoY in October.
- “Rents in Austin, Texas climbed by nearly 30% from early 2020 to mid-2023 but have now posted five consecutive months of annual declines.” (Molly Boesel, CoreLogic)
- San Diego (5.6%), Minneapolis (5.2%), and Boston (5.1%) posted the highest annual rent growth, while Austin (-2.5%) and Miami (-1.1%) posted annual losses.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | January 30, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- The National Price Index reported a 5.1% annual change in November, after reporting a 4.7% annual change in October.
- For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.2% MoM decrease in November.
- Detroit (8.2%) and San Diego (8%) again led the way for YoY increases, while Portland (-0.7%) was the only metro to report a decrease in prices.
December Rental Report
Realtor.com | Press Release | January 25, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- December marks the eighth month of YoY rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties at -0.4%, after a -0.6% decline in November.
- “The median asking rent was $1,713, down by $4 from last month and $63 (-3.5%) less than the peak seen in July 2022. However, it was still $309 (22.0%) higher than the same time in 2019.” (Realtor.com)
- The YoY rent for the South declined -0.5%, led by Orlando (-6.2%), Austin (-5.4%), and Dallas (-4.7%). This decrease is likely due to the 32% increase in the annual multi-family completion rate from January to October 2023.
New Residential Construction
HUD | Press Release | January 18, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- Permits for buildings with 5+ units were down -20.3% in 2023 vs. 2022, while completions for those buildings were up 23% in that same time period.
- Starts for single-family homes decreased -8% MoM after reaching a 20-month peak in November.
- Completions for buildings with 5+ units have increased for 2 consecutive months, increasing 11% MoM.
New Residential Sales
HUD | Press Release | January 26, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- New Home Sales were up 8% MoM in December after falling -12.2% MoM in November.
- The months’ supply of new homes decreased -6.8% to 8.2 months in December, compared with 8.8 months in November.
- Seasonally adjusted new homes for sale at the end of December reached its highest level in 2023, and increased 0.9% MoM.
Existing Home Sales
NAR | Press Release | January 19, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- Existing home sales dipped -1% MoM in December, after holding steady in November.
- The median existing home sales price was $382,600, down -1.3% MoM and the 5th consecutive month of decline.
- According to the Realtors Confidence Index, homes typically remained on the market for 29 days, up 16% MoM and 11% YoY.
Pending Home Sales Index
NAR | Press Release | January 26, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- Pending home sales increased 8.3% MoM in December after remaining flat in November.
- The Midwest (5.6%), South (11.1%), and West (14%) all increased MoM, while the Northeast (-3%) was the only region with a decrease.
- “The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.