Key Rental Housing Data Release Summary for July 2024

Looking for a place where all the key rental housing data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!

Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | July 11, 2024

Headline: Inflation falls 0.1% in June from prior month, helping case for lower rates (CNBC)

Key Takeaways:

• The index excluding Food & Energy (“Core Inflation”) increased 3.3% over the last 12 months ending in June, down from 3.4% in the 12 months ending in May. This marks the smallest annual rate of increase since April 2021.
• The All Item CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending in June, down from the 3.3% increase for the 12 months ending in May.
• The monthly inflation rate dipped in June for the first time in more than four years, and the 12-month rate at 3% is around its lowest level in more than three years.
• “The latest inflation numbers put us firmly on the path for a September Fed rate cut.” (Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management)

Small Business Optimism Index

National Federation of Independent Business | Report | July 9, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Small Business Optimism Index increased 1 point in June to 91.5, the highest reading this year, after increasing 0.8 points in May and 1.2 points in April.
• 52% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down 6 points from May and the lowest reading since August 2022.
• 19% of small business owners said that labor quality was their top business problem (down 1 point from last month), making it the second highest issue for small business owners behind inflation.

Employment Situation Summary

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | July 5, 2024

Headline: Employers added 206,000 jobs in June as sturdy labor market gradually cools (NBC News)

Key Takeaways:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, after increasing 272,000 in May and 175,000 in April.
• The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.1% in June, from 4% in May, now sitting above 4% for the first time since November 2021.
• The government added 70,000 jobs in June, higher than the average monthly gain of 49,000 over the last 12 months.

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan | Press Release | July 26, 2024

Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director: 

• Consumer sentiment had an insignificant change in July with a reading of 66.4, down from 68.2 in June.
• “Sentiment has lifted 33% above the June 2022 historic low, but it remains guarded as high prices continue to drag down attitudes”
• Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for the second straight month to 2.9%, from 3% last month.

Consumer Spending

Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | July 26, 2024

Headline: Cooling US inflation bolsters September rate cut hopes (Reuters)

Key Takeaways

• Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy:
  • +0.2% MoM (May: +0.1% MoM)
  • +2.6% YoY (May: +2.6% YoY ) << this is a key metric tracked by the Fed 
• The Overall PCE Index increased 0.1% MoM in June after remaining flat MoM in May, and increased 2.5% YoY in June after increasing 2.6% in May.
• “The much-improved inflation readings indicate that the flare-up in inflation in the first quarter was temporary,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. Moreover, if rental inflation has finally decelerated, as recent data suggest, then inflation looks to be back on a sustained downward trend.”

Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

Single-Family Rent Index

CoreLogic | Press Release | July 18, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• U.S. single-family rents rose by 3.2% YoY in May, after increasing 3% in April.
• “Single-family rent growth regained strength in May, increasing to the highest annual growth rate since April 2023.” (Molly Boesel, CoreLogic)
• Lower-priced rentals saw only a 1.2% annual increase in rent rate, compared to a 5.3% YoY increase in May 2023.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | July 30, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• The National Price Index reported a 5.9% annual gain in May, after a 6.3% annual gain in April.
• “Our home price index has appreciated 4.1% year-to-date, the fastest start in two years. Covering the six-month period dating to when mortgage rates peaked, our national index has risen the past four months, erasing the stall experienced late last year.” (Brian Luke, S&P DJI)

June Rental Report

Realtor.com | Press Release | July 18, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• June marks the eleventh month of YoY rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties at -0.4%, after falling -0.7% in May.

• U.S. median rent is 21% higher than the same time in 2019, which is on par with the increase in overall consumer prices (+22.6%) but much lower than the 52% increase in the median price per square foot of for-sale homes.
• The top 5 markets with the fastest rent growth since 2019 are Tampa (39.5%), Miami (39.2%), Indianapolis (37.5%), Pittsburgh (37.4%), and Sacramento (35.8%). 

New Residential Construction

HUD | Press Release | July 17, 2024

Key Takeaways: 

• Permits for single-family units are up 17% YTD vs. YTD last year, while multi-family permits are down -20% over that same timeframe.
• Starts for multi-family units are up 22% MoM, but are down -36% YTD vs. YTD last year. 
• Completions for multi-family units are up 26% MoM, while completions for single-family units are up only 1.8% MoM. 

New Residential Sales

HUD | Press Release | July 24, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• New home sales remained relatively flat MoM in June, after decreasing -15% MoM in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.
• New home sales increased in the Midwest by 40% YoY in June on a seasonally adjusted basis.
• Months’ supply of new homes increased 2% MoM in June after increasing 18% MoM in May on a seasonally adjusted basis – it has remained over 9 months for two consecutive months for the first time since Q4 2022.

Existing Home Sales

NAR | Press Release | July 23, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Existing home sales decreased by -5.4% MoM in June, after falling -0.7% MoM in May.
• The median existing-home sales price jumped 1.8% MoM in June to $426,900, a 4% increase YoY.
• Existing home supply reached 4.1 months given the current sales pace, the first time exceeding 4 months since May 2020.

Pending Home Sales Index

NAR | Press Release | July 31, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Pending home sales increased 4.8% MoM in June, after decreasing -2.1% MoM in May.
• All four regions posted monthly gains in pending home sales.
• “The rise in housing inventory is beginning to lead to more contract signings… and buyers are in a more favorable position.” (Lawrence Yun, NAR)