Looking for a place where all the key rental housing data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!
Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | June 12, 2024
Headline: Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago (CNBC)
Key Takeaways:
- The index excluding Food & Energy (“Core Inflation”) increased 3.4% over the last 12 months ending in May, down from 3.6% in the 12 months ending in April.
- The All Item CPI increased 3.3% for the 12 months ending in May, down from the 3.4% increase for the 12 months ending in April.
- “There was relief at the pump, but unfortunately home and apartment costs continue to rise and remain the main cause of inflation. Until those shelter costs begin their long-awaited fall, we won’t see major drops in CPI.” (Robert Frick, Navy Federal Credit Union)
Small Business Optimism Index
National Federation of Independent Business | Report | June 11, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- The Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.8 points in May to 90.5, the highest reading this year, after increasing 1.2 points in April.
- Overall, 60 percent of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in May, up 4 points from April.
- A seasonally adjusted net 18% of small business owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 3 points from April and the lowest reading since March 2021.
Employment Situation Summary
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | June 7, 2024
Headline: U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected (CNBC)
Key Takeaways:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, after increasing 175,000 in April and 315,000 in March.
- The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% in May, from 3.9% in April.
- The government added 43,000 jobs in May after adding 8,000 jobs in April, compared with the average monthly growth of 52,000 over the last 12 months.
- US job openings dropped to 8.1 million in April, their lowest in over three years, and the unemployed-to-job opening ratio decreased to 0.68 — still well below 0.93 before the pandemic.
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan | Press Release | June 28, 2024
Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director:
- Consumer sentiment held flat in June with a reading of 68.2 compared to the May reading of 69.1.
- “While consumers exhibited confidence that inflation will continue to moderate, many expressed concerns about the effect of high prices and weakening incomes on their personal finances.”
- Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 3.3% last month to 3.0% this month.
Consumer Spending
Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | June 28, 2024
Headline: US inflation cools in May, boosting hopes of Fed rate cut (Reuters)
Key Takeaways
- Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy:
- +0.1% MoM (April: +0.2% MoM)
- +2.6% YoY (April: +2.8% YoY ) << this is a key metric tracked by the Fed
- The Overall PCE Price Index remained flat MoM after increasing 0.3% MoM in April, and increased 2.6% YoY after increasing 2.7% YoY in April.
- “This was the first time in six months that PCE inflation was unchanged.” (Reuters)
- “This was a very Fed-friendly report that should keep the September rate cut in play.” (Scott Anderson, BMO Capital Markets)
Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data
Single-Family Rent Index
CoreLogic | Press Release | June 18, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. single-family rents held steady in April with an annual increase of 3%, after increasing 3.4% in March.
- Attached rental prices continued their decline by -0.5% YoY in April after decreasing -0.6% in March, while detached rental prices remained above the national average.
- The decrease in the attached segment is being driven by a subset of markets, mostly those in Florida, but including Austin, Texas, New Orleans and Phoenix.
- The attached vs. detached rental price trends “could signify that even after the pandemic, Americans who rent want more personal space and are willing to pay more for it if their budgets allow. Also, the high cost of homeownership is likely causing some households to stay in single-family rentals.” (CoreLogic)
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | June 25, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- The National Price Index reported a 6.3% annual gain in April, down from the annual increase of 8.3% in March.
- “2024 is closely tracking the strong start observed last year, where March and April posted the largest rise seen prior to a slowdown in the summer and fall. Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year.” (Brian Luke, S&P DJI)
- San Diego (10.3%) posted the highest annual gain, followed by New York (9.4%) and Chicago (8.7%).
May Rental Report
Realtor.com | Press Release | June 11, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- May marks the tenth month of YoY rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties at -0.7%, the same decrease as April.
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- The median rent declined in all size categories with larger declines in smaller-sized units.
- “Regionally, larger rent declines are seen in the Southern and Western markets such as Austin, TX (-9.3%), and San Francisco, CA (-4.3%). Meanwhile, faster rent increases are seen in the Midwest and Northeast metros such as Indianapolis, IN (4.4%), and Pittsburgh, PA (2.4%).” (Realtor.com)
- The share of renters who moved in the past 12 months declined to its lowest rate in 2022, suggesting a record-high lease renewal rate, resulting in a stickier Consumer Price Index measure of shelter prices.
New Residential Construction
HUD | Press Release | June 20, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- Permits for single family units are down -2.9% MoM but increased 5.2% YoY, while multi-family permits are down -29% YoY.
- Starts for multi-family units are down 40% YTD vs. YTD last year, while starts for single family units are up 19% over that same time period.
- Completions for multi-family units are up 17.9% YTD vs. YTD last year, while completions for single family units are flat in that time period.
New Residential Sales
HUD | Press Release | June 26, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- New Home Sales fell -11% MoM in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after decreasing -5% MoM in April.
- New Home Sales decreased -43% MoM in the Northeast region, and saw a MoM decline in the other regions as well: Midwest (-8%), South (-11%), West (-4.5%)
- Months’ Supply of New Homes increased 15% MoM in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
Existing Home Sales
NAR | Press Release | June 21, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- Existing home sales decreased slightly by -0.7% in May, after falling -1.9% MoM in April.
- The median existing-home sales price jumped 5.8% from May 2023 to $419,300 – the highest price ever recorded and the eleventh consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
- First-time homebuyers accounted for 31% of existing home sales in May, remaining above 30% for three consecutive months which has not happened since Q2 2021.
- Housing supply is at 3.7 months given the current sales pace, its highest level since June 2020.
Pending Home Sales Index
NAR | Press Release | June 27, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- Pending home sales decreased -2.1% MoM in May, after decreasing -7.7% MoM in April.
- On a month-over-month basis, contract signings declined in the Midwest and South but increased in the Northeast and West.
- All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases.