Key Rental Housing Data Release Summary for September 2023

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Looking for a place where all the key SFR data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!

Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | September 13, 2023

Headline: US consumer prices continued to rise last month — but the Fed probably won’t raise rates (CNN)

Key Takeaways:

• The index excluding Food & Energy (“Core Inflation”) increased 4.3% over the last 12 months – its slowest pace since September 2021.
• The All Item CPI increased 3.7% for the 12 months ending in August, after increasing 3.2% for the 12 months ending in July
• Gasoline prices accounted for over half of the increase, jumping 10.6% in August.
• “Financial markets see a 97% chance that the Fed will decide to pause [in September], according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while the chances of another pause in November are lower, at around 58%.” (CNN)

Small Business Optimism Index

National Federation of Independent Business | Report | September 12, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Small Business Optimism Index decreased by 0.6 points in August to 91.3, after increasing by 0.9 points in July.
• Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated by seven points from July.
• Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up 2 points from last month

Employment Situation Summary

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | September 1, 2023

Headline: US jobs data raises hope of Goldilocks scenario as economy cools (Financial Times)

Key Takeaways:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August and the unemployment rate increased to 3.8%, compared with 3.5% in July.
• The labor force participation rate increased by 0.2% to 62.8%, after being flat since March 2023.
• In August 2022 the unemployment rate was similar at 3.7% but the number of unemployed persons was 6 million, compared with August 2023 the number of unemployed persons was 6.4 million. 
• Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined.

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan | Press Release | September 29, 2023

Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director: 

• “Consumer sentiment inched down 1.8 index points this month and has been essentially flat for the past two months.” (Joanne Hsu)
• The current reading for year-ahead inflation is the lowest since March 2021 and is just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.
• The score for Current Economic Conditions is down 7.8% MoM, but up from the historic lows we saw last year: +16.9% YoY.

Consumer Spending

Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | September 29, 2023

Key Takeaways

• Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy:
  • +0.1% MoM (July: +0.2% MoM)
  • +3.9% YoY (July: +4.3% YoY) << this is a key metric tracked by the Fed 
• Personal Consumer Expenditures (dollars) ticked up 0.4% MoM in August after increasing 0.9% MoM in July.
• The gap between Expenditures and Personal Income suggests a spending spree over the last few months – PCE is up 0.4% MoM, 0.9%, and 0.4% through the months of June, July, and August, while Personal Income is up only 0.2% MoM, 0.2%, and 0.4% in that same time period.

Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

Single-Family Rent Index

CoreLogic | Press Release | September 19, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• U.S. single-family rents posted a 3.1% year-over-year gain in July, the 15th consecutive month of deceleration but in line with pre-pandemic trends.
• Low-end rental gains were up by 4.6% on an annual basis in July, compared with 2.3% growth for high-end rentals.
• St Louis saw the highest annual rent growth at 7.3%, while Las Vegas (-1%), Miami (-0.6%) and Austin (-0.5%) all saw annual decreases.
• Despite Miami’s annual decrease in rent growth, the metro has seen 55% rent growth since July 2020. 

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | September 26, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The National Price Index reported a 1% annual change in July, after reporting no movement in June. 
• Chicago, Cleveland, and New York led the way for the third consecutive month reporting the highest year-over-year gains in the 20-city index.
• The National Price Index posted a 0.6% increase MoM in the month of July.
• “We have previously noted that home prices peaked in June 2022 and fell through January of 2023, declining by 5.0% in those seven months. The increase in prices that began in January has now erased the earlier decline, so that July represents a new all-time high for the National Composite.” (Craig Lazara, S&P DJI)

August Rental Report

Realtor.com | Press Release | September 21, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• August 2023 marks the fourth month of year-over-year rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties (-0.6% YoY).

• In 47 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, renting a starter home is a more affordable option than buying one. In these markets, the monthly cost of buying a starter home in August 2023 was $2,959–$1,183, or 64.3% higher than the cost of renting.
• Memphis, Pittsburgh, and Birmingham are the three metros where buying provides savings over renting, but those savings have diminished significantly over the last 12 months.
• During the past 12 months, the cost to buy a starter home climbed at an average rate of 21.4%.

New Residential Construction

HUD | Press Release | September 19, 2023

Headline: US housing starts hit three-year low; surge in permits point to underlying strength (Reuters)

Key Takeaways: 

• Building permits were up 6.9% MoM in August, and Multi-Family permits increased 14.5% MoM after 2 months of low levels not seen since 2020
• Single-family permits reached their highest rate since June 2022.
• Housing starts were down 11.3% MoM in August, with Multi-Family leading the way at a 26% MoM decrease in starts. 

New Residential Sales

HUD | Press Release | September 26, 2023

Headline: Unsold homebuilder inventory is ticking up as new home sales slow (HousingWire)

Key Takeaways:

• New Home Sales were down 8.7% MoM in August and up 5.8% YoY, after seeing a MoM increase of 4.4% in July.
• The supply of new homes for sale at the end of August represents 7.8 months according to the current sales rate – this represents an increase of 11% MoM compared with July.
• Mortgage applications for new home purchases increased by 4% between July and August, the strongest pace of sales in three months. (HousingWire)

Existing Home Sales

NAR | Press Release | September 21, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Existing home sales dropped 0.7% MoM in August, and decreased 15.3% YoY.
• The median existing-home sales price climbed 3.9% from one year ago to $407,100 – the third consecutive month the median sales price surpassed $400,000.
• Individual investors made up 16% of existing home sales in August, the same share as in July.
• “Home prices continue to march higher despite lower home sales,” Yun said. “Supply needs to essentially double to moderate home price gains.” -Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

Pending Home Sales Index

NAR | Press Release | September 28, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Pending home sales decreased 7.1% MoM in August after increasing 0.9% MoM in July.
• The South region led the way with a decrease of -9.1% MoM, the West saw a decrease of -7.7% MoM, the Midwest decrease of -7.0% MoM, and the Northeast saw a slight decline of -0.9% MoM.
• “The Federal Reserve must consider the sharply decelerating rent growth in its consideration of future monetary policy. There is no need to raise interest rates.” (Lawrence Yun, NAR)