Key SFR Data Release Summary for March 2023

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Looking for a place where all the key SFR data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!

Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | March 14, 2023

Headline: February’s CPI Inflation Numbers Put Focus On Home Prices

Key Takeaways:

• CPI increased 6% over the last 12 months
• CPI increased 0.4% in February, after increasing 0.5% in January
• The index for shelter accounted for 70% of the increase (shelter costs account for about a third of the CPI metric), and critics say the calculation used to index shelter can be misleading since it looks at home prices up to 6 months ago – meaning the current softening of the market has not been fully reflected in CPI yet.

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan | Press Release | March 31, 2023

Key Takeaways: 

• Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months, dropping about 8% below February but remaining 4% above a year ago
• This month’s turmoil in the banking sector had a limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum
• While sentiment fell across all demographic groups, the declines were sharpest for lower-income, less-educated, and younger consumers, as well as consumers with the top tercile of stock holdings.

Consumer Spending

Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | March 31, 2023

Headline: Stocks Firmly Higher As Fed Inflation Gauge Cools, Summer Rate Cut Bets Jump 

Key Takeaways:

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.5% MoM (January: +2% MoM)
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): +0.2% MoM (January: +2% MoM)
• Core PCE Index: +0.3% MoM (January: +0.5% MoM) – lower than analysts were expecting. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of US inflation and it is showing a smaller increase than the previous month.

Small Business Optimism Index

National Federation of Independent Business | Report | March 14, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The overall index increased 0.6 points in February to 90.9 but remains well below the 49-year average of 98
• 47% of small business owners reported having job openings that they couldn’t fill, up two points from January. These openings were most prevalent in the construction and transportation industries, and least prevalent in the financial sector.
• 28% of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up 2 points from January but down 9 points from the peak reading in July 2022

Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

Single-Family Rent Index

CoreLogic | Press Release | March 21, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Single-family rent price growth was up by 5.7% year over year in January 2023, the lowest rate of appreciation since the spring of 2021
• All 20 tracked metro areas posted single-digit annual rent price gains, with Phoenix at less than 1%

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | March 28, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The National Price Index reported a 3.8% YoY increase in January 2023, compared with a 5.6% YoY increase in December 2022
• The index reported a 0.5% MoM decrease – the 7th consecutive month showing a month-over-month decrease
• San Diego, Portland, San Francisco, and Seattle all posted a year-over-year decrease, pointing to continued weakness in home prices on the west coast

February Rental Report

Realtor.com | Press Release | March 21, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• February 2023 marked the seventh month in a row with a single-digit rate of increase for 0-2 bedroom properties (3.1% YoY)
• Rental affordability slightly worsened – rent-to-income in February 2022 was 24.8%, compared with 25.3% in February 2023

New Residential Construction

HUD | Press Release | March 16, 2023

Headline: Housing starts increase to meet rising buyer demand (HousingWire)

Key Takeaways: 

• Building Permits: +13.8% MoM | -17.9% YoY
• Housing Starts: +9.8% MoM | -18.4% YoY
• Housing Completions: +12.2% MoM | +12.8% YoY
• Building permits for buildings with 5+ units are up almost 25% compared to January 2023, while Single Family permits are up 7.6%

New Residential Sales

HUD | Press Release | March 23, 2023

Headline: U.S. new home sales post third straight monthly gain in February (Reuters)

Key Takeaways:

• New Home Sales were up 1.1% MoM and down 19% YoY, compared with the January 2023 MoM increase of 7.2%
• In February 2022, 75% of the new home sales happened when the homes were not yet completed. In Feb 2023, that number was down to 65%. This shows that new houses are waiting longer to sell compared with last year.

Pending Home Sales Index

National Association of Realtors | Press Release | March 29, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Increased for 3rd consecutive month, albeit slightly, with an increase of 0.8% MoM compared to January (January was +8% MoM), with the Northeast up 6.5%
• “The affordable U.S. regions – the Midwest and South – are leading the recovery,” Yun added. “Mortgage rates have improved in recent weeks after the federal government guaranteed the status of most mortgages amidst uncertainty in the financial market. While access to commercial mortgage loans could become increasingly difficult, residential mortgage loans are expected to be more readily available.”

Existing Home Sales

NAR | Press Release | March 21, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Existing home sales jumped 14.5% in February, snapping a 12-month slide and representing the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020 (+22.4%)
• The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $363,000, a decline of 0.2% from February 2022 ($363,700). This ends a streak of 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest on record.

Quarterly Releases

Tricon Residential Quarterly Earnings

Earnings Report | March 2, 2023

Headline: Tricon Completes a Year of Record Growth and Delivers Strong Operational Results in Q4 2022 (BusinessWire)

Key Takeaways:

• For the full year, Tricon acquired a record 7,227 homes, expanding its portfolio by 23.2%
• The same home NOI for the single-family rental portfolio in Q4 2022 grew by 9.7% year-over-year and the same home NOI margin increased by 1.8% to a record 69.8%
• On October 18, 2022, Tricon completed the sale of its remaining 20% equity interest in its U.S. multi-family rental portfolio
• 2023 Guidance includes an acquisitions target of 2,000-4,000 homes, lower NOI growth than 2022 (6-7.5% vs. 10.4%), and higher expense growth (6-7.5% vs. 4.1%)