Key Rental Housing Data Release Summary for December 2023

Looking for a place where all the key rental housing data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!

Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | December 12, 2023

Headline: Here’s the inflation breakdown for November 2023 — in one chart (CNBC)

Key Takeaways:

• The index excluding Food & Energy (“Core Inflation”) increased 4% over the last 12 months, the same increase as the 12 months ending in October.
• The All Item CPI increased 3.1% for the 12 months ending in November, after increasing 3.2% in the 12 months ending in October.
• “Shelter has accounted for nearly 70% of the total increase in core CPI over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Housing inflation declined slightly in November, to 6.5% relative to a year earlier, and has fallen from a peak of over 8% in March 2023.” (CNBC)

Small Business Optimism Index

National Federation of Independent Business | Report | December 12, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Small Business Optimism Index decreased by 0.1 points in November to 90.6, following a 0.1-point decrease in October.
• The percent of small businesses who raised prices fell 5 points to 25% of all firms, down from over 60% when inflation started.
• The percent of owners reporting unfilled job openings has declined from 51% in 2020 to 40% in November 2023.

Employment Situation Summary

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | December 8, 2023

Headline: U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 in November, unemployment rate falls to 3.7% (CNBC)

Key Takeaways:

• The unemployment rate moved down from 3.9% to 3.7% in November.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November after increasing by 150,000 in October and 297,000 in September. 
• Job gains occurred in health care and government, and also saw an uptick in manufacturing reflecting the return of workers from their strike.
• We see a “strong but moderating labor market”, with “healthy job growth, lower unemployment, and decent wage increases. All this points to the labor market reaching a natural equilibrium of around 150,000 jobs [per month] next year, which is plenty to continue the expansion, and not enough to trigger a Fed rate hike.” (Robert Frick, Navy Federal Credit Union)

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan | Press Release | December 22, 2023

Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director: 

• Consumer sentiment soared 14% in December, reversing all declines from the previous four months.
• “Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 4.5% last month to 3.1% this month.  The current reading is the lowest since March 2021 and sits just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.” (Joanne Hsu)
• All five index components rose this month, which has only occurred in 10% of readings since 1978.

Consumer Spending

Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | December 22, 2023 

Headline: US inflation decelerating in boost to economy (Reuters)

Key Takeaways

• Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy:
  • +0.1% MoM (October: +0.1% MoM)
  • +3.2% YoY (October: +3.4% YoY ) << this is a key metric tracked by the Fed 
• The Overall PCE Price Index decreased -0.1% MoM and increased only 2.6% YoY.
• Personal Consumer Expenditures (dollars) ticked up 0.2% MoM in November after increasing 0.1% in October and 0.7% in September. 
• “U.S. prices fell in November for the first in more than 3-1/2 years, pushing the annual increase in inflation further below 3%, and boosting financial market expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next March.” (Reuters)

Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

Single-Family Rent Index

CoreLogic | Press Release | December 19, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Single Family Rent Index recorded a 2.5% year-over-year gain in October, the lowest growth rate in more than three years.
• Despite slowing growth, the median renter household now pays about $500 more per month than it did in early 2020.
• San Diego (5.2%), St Louis (5%), and New York and Boston (4.7%) posted the highest annual rent growth, while Austin (-2.1%) and Miami (-1%) saw year-over-year decreases.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | December 26, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The National Price Index reported a 4.8% annual change in October, after reporting a 4% annual increase in September. 
• “U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October.” (Brian Luke, S&P DJI)
• Detroit (8.1%), San Diego (7.2%), and New York (7.1%) led the way with the highest year-over-year increase, and Phoenix and Las Vegas flipped to slight year-over-year gains.

November Rental Report

Realtor.com | Press Release | December 14, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• November marks the seventh month of YoY rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties at -0.6%, after a -0.5% YoY decline in October.

• The median rent in the West was -2.3% lower YoY, driven by big metros such as San Francisco (-2.8%) and Los Angeles (-3.8%).

• Northeastern metros such as New York, NY (5.6%) and Boston, MA (6.1%) drove rent YoY growth for the region.

• Contributions to the difference in these trends could be faster growth of supply in the West (23% higher completions this year vs. 0.7% higher completions for the Northeast), or a more consistent labor market in the Northeast (3.5% unemployment vs. 4.2% unemployment in the West region)

New Residential Construction

HUD | Press Release | December 19, 2023

Key Takeaways: 

• Starts for single-family homes increased 18% while reaching a level not seen since April 2022.
• Completions for multi-family increased 26% MoM
• Total permits dropped 2.5% MoM, and are down -13.7% YTD compared to 2022.

New Residential Sales

HUD | Press Release | December 22, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• New Home Sales were down -12.2% MoM and 1.3% YoY in November, after declining -5.6% MoM in October.
• The supply of new homes for sale at the end of November increased to 9.2 months according to the current sales rate, an increase of 16% compared to October, after October saw a MoM increase of 13%.
• Overall, total new homes sold are up 5.4% YTD compared with 2022.

Existing Home Sales

NAR | Press Release | December 20, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Existing home sales held essentially unchanged (+0.1%) MoM in November, after declining 4.1% MoM in October. 
• The percentage of sales by first-time buyers went up to 31% in November, compared with 28% and 27% in October and September respectively.
• The median existing home sales price was $387,600, down 1% MoM and the 4th consecutive month of decline.

Pending Home Sales Index

NAR | Press Release | December 28, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Pending home sales remained flat in November MoM after decreasing -1.5% MoM in October.
• “Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings.” (Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist)
• The pending home sales index for the West saw the greatest MoM increase at 4.2%, while the Northeast (0.8%) and Midwest (0.5%) also saw increases. The South region saw a 2.3% MoM decrease