Key SFR Data Release Summary for July 2023

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Looking for a place where all the key SFR data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!

Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | July 12, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The All Item CPI increased 3% for the 12 months ending in June, the smallest increase since the period ending March 2021.
• The All Item CPI increased 0.2% MoM in June after increasing 0.1% in May.
• The index excluding Food & Energy increased by 4.8% over the last 12 months, the first time this number fell below 5% since November 2021.
• Note the All Items CPI for 12 months peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%, so starting now and moving forward the index will no longer include peak inflation.

Small Business Optimism Index

National Federation of Independent Business | Report | July 11, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Optimism Index increased by 1.6 points in June to 91.0 after increasing by 0.4 points in May.
• Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved 10 points from May to a net negative 40 percent 21 percentage points better than last June’s reading of a net negative 61 percent.

💬 “Where is the recession hiding? Housing seems to have bottomed and is moving up modestly, consumer spending is flat but not headed for the exits, credit statistics are flashing some problems but not critical, and there are some large city real estate problems, but not widespread… All eyes are on the Federal Reserve.”–William Dunkelberg & Holly Wade, Small Business Optimism Index report

Employment Situation Summary

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | July 7, 2023

Headline: Job Gains Slow in June, Unemployment Rate Edges Lower

Key Takeaways:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6% compared with 3.7% in May.
• The labor market has added jobs for 30 consecutive months, but June’s figure is the lowest monthly gain in 2.5 years.

💬 “June is typically a banner month for hiring… and this June jobs report was poised to be another blowout. Instead, it showed signs of the labor market cooling—perhaps the result of the Fed’s rate hikes finally biting.” –Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan | Press Release | July 28, 2023

Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director: 

• Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month soaring 11% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since October 2021.
• The improvements were led by an 18% increase in long-term business conditions and a 14% increase in short-run business conditions.

💬 “Overall, the sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets.” –Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan

Consumer Spending

Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | June 30, 2023

Headline: Inflation eased in May but data also showed prices excluding food and gas stayed high (USA Today)

Key Takeaways

• Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy: 
  • +0.3% MoM (April: +0.4% MoM)
  • +4.6% YoY (April: +4.7% YoY)
• Consumer spending ticked up only 0.1% in May after gaining 0.6% in April.

💬 “Overall, there is little here to stop the Fed from hiking rates again at the late-July (Fed) meeting,” says economist Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics. “But, with consumption growth and core inflation losing momentum, we still think that hike will prove to be the last.” –USA Today

Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

Single-Family Rent Index

CoreLogic | Press Release | July 18, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Single-family rent growth dipped to 3.4% in May compared with 3.7% in April. This marks the 13th straight month of year-over-year deceleration. 
• Since the start of the pandemic, single-family median rents increased by $470, or 30%.
• The overall rate of increase is roughly back to its pre-pandemic norm recorded between 2010 and 2019.
• Higher-priced rentals are up 2.1% YoY while lower-priced rentals are up 5.6% YoY.

Chicago topped the nation for annual rent growth at 6.6%.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | July 25, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The National Price Index reported a -0.5% annual decrease in May down from an annual loss of -0.1% in April. 
• The National Price Index posted a 1.2% MoM increase in May after posting a 1.3% MoM increase in April.

The Index now stands only 1.0% below its June 2022 peak.

June Rental Report

Realtor.com | Press Release | July 25, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• June 2023 marks the second year-over-year rent decline in a row for 0-2 bedroom properties (-1.0% YoY).

• Median asking rent was 24% higher than the same time in 2019 with 2-bedroom properties leading the way with a 27% increase compared to 2019.
• The median asking rent in the West region was down -3.8% YoY, while the median rent is increasing in the Northeast likely due to the strong labor market in the Northeast.

New Residential Construction

HUD | Press Release | July 19, 2023

Headline: US housing starts to slow down – reflect affordability challenges (MPA)

Key Takeaways: 

• Building permits overall were down 3.7% MoM in June, but single-family permits increased 2.2% MoM.
• Housing starts were down 8% MoM in June, and single-family starts were down 7% MoM.

💬 “Homebuilders started construction on fewer dwellings in June than in May. Looking at the bigger picture, construction activity is strong. We’ve seen a two-month surge in the construction of single-family houses, which are in short supply. At the same time, builders are breaking ground on fewer apartments.” –Holden Lewis, NerdWallet

New Residential Sales

HUD | Press Release | July 26, 2023

Headline: New Home Sales Slow in June (Investopedia)

Key Takeaways:

• New Home Sales were down -2.5% MoM but up 23.8% YoY in June compared with a 12.2% MoM and 20% YoY increase in May.
• The average seasonally adjusted rate of new home sales in Q2 2023 was up 1.1% over Q2 2019.

💬 “We expect new home sales to soften further as the economy enters a recession and the labor market softens. However, a tight supply of existing homes and resilient demand should keep a floor under sales.” –Oxford Economics

Existing Home Sales

NAR | Press Release | July 20, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Existing home sales dropped 3.3% MoM in June, after a minor gain of 0.2% in May.
• At $410,200, the median existing-home sales price for June was the second-highest price ever recorded (since January 1999 when NAR began tracking the data).
• Existing home sales in the first half of the year were down 23%.
• “There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.” (Lawrence Yun, NAR)
• Existing sales in the Northeast increased 2% MoM, the Midwest remained unchanged, and the South (-5.4%) and West (-5.1%) both decreased compared with May.

Pending Home Sales Index

NAR | Press Release | July 27, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Pending home sales increased 0.3% MoM in June, the first month-over-month increase since February.
• The South and West posted monthly losses, while sales in the Northeast and Midwest grew.

💬 “The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over. The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to a lack of supply. Homebuilders are ramping up production and hiring workers.” –Lawrence Yun, NAR

Quarterly Releases: Earnings Statements

Invitation Homes

Press Release | July 27, 2023

• • Purchased 1,900 homes for $650 million largely in the sunbelt markets.
  • Same Store Core Operating Expenses for Q2 2023 increased 11.2% year over year. The largest contributors to the increase include property tax expenses as well as an increase in turnover expenses – partly a result of working through the company’s compliance backlog.
  • Same Store new lease rent growth of 7.3% and Same Store renewal rent growth of 6.9% drove Same Store blended rent growth of 7.0%.

• Increased the FY 2023 guidance for Same Store NOI Growth in light of the large acquisition.

• The total portfolio consists of 82,837 homes after acquiring 2,176 homes in Q2 2023 and selling 361 homes.

AMH

Press Release | July 27, 2023

• Same-Home core revenues increased 6.5%, driven by a 7.2% increase in average monthly rent.
• Core property operating expenses from Same-Home properties increased 9.9%.
• Increased the FY 2023 guidance for NOI Growth and Core Revenues Growth.
• The wholly-owned portfolio consists of 58,693 homes after selling 415 homes to third parties in Q2 and delivering 634 new homes to the market.