Key SFR Data Release Summary for June 2023

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Looking for a place where all the key SFR data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!

Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | June 13, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• CPI increased 4.0% over the last 12 months down from 4.9% in April. This was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2021.
• CPI MoM increased 0.1% in May, after increasing 0.4% in April.
• The shelter index increased 8% over the last year, compared with an increase of 8.1% in April. Shelter was once again the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase.

Small Business Optimism Index

National Federation of Independent Business | Report | June 13, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Overall index increased by 0.4 points in May, after decreasing 1.1 points in April.
• 25% percent of owners reported inflation as their single most important problem, up two points from last month.
• Overall, 63% of business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in May, up 3 points from April.
• “Indicators that have historically been very accurate predictors of major changes in economic activity (recessions) have been sending very clear recession signals (Leading Indicators, Yield Curve inversion, Univ. of Michigan, NFIB, etc.) all year, but the economy has to date refused to cooperate and corroborate.”

Employment Situation Summary

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | June 2, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7% compared with 3.4% in April.
• In May, construction added 25,000 jobs including 11,000 jobs in heavy and civil engineering construction. Over the prior 12 months, construction had added an average of 17,000 jobs per month. 

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan | Press Release | June 30, 2023

Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director: 

• Consumer sentiment rose 9% this month after falling 7% last month
• “Overall, this upswing reflects a recovery in attitudes generated by the early-month resolution of the debt ceiling crisis, along with more positive feelings over softening inflation.” (Joanne Hsu)
• The current reading for year-ahead inflation expectations is at its lowest level since March 2021.

Consumer Spending

Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | June 30, 2023

Headline: Inflation eased in May but data also showed prices excluding food and gas stayed high (USA Today)

Key Takeaways

• Core PCE Index, excluding food and energy: 
  • +0.3% MoM (April: +0.4% MoM)
  • +4.6% YoY (April: +4.7% YoY)
• Consumer spending ticked up only 0.1% in May after gaining 0.6% in April.

“Overall, there is little here to stop the Fed from hiking rates again at the late-July (Fed) meeting,” says economist Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics. “But, with consumption growth and core inflation losing momentum, we still think that hike will prove to be the last.” (USA Today)

Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

Single-Family Rent Index

CoreLogic | Press Release | June 20, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Single-family rent growth dipped to 3.7% in April, compared with 4.3% in March. This marks the 12th straight month of year-over-year deceleration.
• Despite the slowing growth, overall rental costs are up by 26% since before the pandemic.
• “Prior to 2020, single-family rent gains increased in the range of 2% to 4% for nearly a decade.” (Molly Boesel from CoreLogic)

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | June 27, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The National Price Index reported a -0.2% annual decrease in April, down from a gain of 0.7% in March.
• Before seasonal adjustment, the National Price Index posted a 1.3% MoM increase in April, same as the 1.3% increase observed in March.
• The National Index now stands only 2.4% below its June 2022 peak. 

May Rental Report

Realtor.com | Press Release | June 26, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• May 2023 marks the first year-over-year rent decline for 2 bedroom properties (-0.5% YoY) observed since trend data began in 2020. Meanwhile smaller units saw rents increase.

• Rents in the Midwest are still growing on an annual basis (4.5% YoY), while rents in the West (-3% YoY) and South (-0.7% YoY) are down.
• Rents in the Northeast and Midwest increased while the unemployment rate in both regions decreased from 3.5% to 2.8% (Northeast) and 3.2% to 2.8% (Midwest).
• The 2023 mid-year forecast calls for a rent price decline of -0.9% in 2023.

New Residential Construction

HUD | Press Release | June 20, 2023

Headline: I’m Skeptical of the Latest Multi-Family Starts Data (Jay Parsons)

Key Takeaways: 

• Single-Family permits have increased for 5 consecutive months up 4.8% MoM.
• Single-Family Starts are up 18% MoM, but down 6.5% YoY.
• Multi-Family permits increased for the first time since February 2023 up 7.8% MoM.
• Multi-Family under construction (5 units or more) is up 17% YoY and has increased for over 12 consecutive months.

New Residential Sales

HUD | Press Release | June 27, 2023

Headline: New home sales surged 20% in May from a year ago (CNN)

Key Takeaways:

• New Home Sales were up 12.2% MoM and up 20% YoY, compared with a 4.1% MoM increase and an increase of 11.8% YoY in April.
• The Median Sales price of new houses sold was $416,300, which is up 3% MoM but down 4% compared to the Q1 average.
• “New home sales have been bolstered by a favorable mix of low inventory, builder incentives and resilient demand; however, that environment may not be that long-lasting.” (Oxford Economics)

Existing Home Sales

NAR | Press Release | June 22, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Existing-home sales recorded a minor gain of 0.2% in May after falling 3.4% MoM in April, and retreated 20% YoY in May. The numbers have been steady in recent months.
• The inventory of unsold existing homes grew 3.8% MoM in May, after growing 7.2% MoM in April.
• Distressed sales represented 2% of sales in May, virtually unchanged from last month and the prior year.

Pending Home Sales Index

NAR | Press Release | June 29, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• Pending home sales dropped in May by 2.7% MoM, after remaining unchanged MoM in April.
• Pending home sales decreased in three of the four U.S. regions, with the Northeast as the only region with an increase at 12.9% MoM.
• “It is encouraging that homebuilders have ramped up production, but the supply from new construction takes time and remains insufficient. There should be more focus on boosting existing-home inventory with temporary tax incentive measures.” -Lawrence Yun (NAR Chief Economist)